According to Pierre-Olivier Gournchas, the top economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth is less bleak now than it was in October.
Gourinchas claimed that the current situation could mark a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation decreasing, despite the challenges provided by the quick monetary tightening to combat rising inflation and Russia- Ukraine conflict.
Gourinchas made these arguments in a blog post released today along with the update of IMF’s World Economic Outlook report.
The IMF cautions that it does not foresee a worldwide recession this year, but there is still a danger of lower GDP and higher inflation, and the balance of risks for the global outlook is still to the downside.
As increased interest rates and Russia’s conflict in Ukraine continue to weigh on the global economy, the IMF’s most recent prediction would still represent a decline from the 3.4% growth seen in 2022.
The international organization claimed that the third quarter of last year looks to have marked a peak in worldwide headline inflation. Although the majority of economies have reached their peak, underlying core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) currently predicts that the global economy will expand by 2.9% this year. Although it is lower than the expected 3.4% growth in 2022.
However, the IMFs most recent World Economic Outlook forecasts released by Gourinchas represent an improvement over an October prediction of 2.7% growth this year with a warning that the world could easily tip into recession. The IMF predicted that global growth would still decline to 2.9% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022.
Despite beginning to experience layoffs outside the technology industry, the US labor market is highly competitive at the moment, according to Gourinchas. The IMF expects that the unemployment rate would increase to a little above 5% in 2024 from 3.5% as of December 2022 as a result of the Fed hiking rates this year and into 2024 to slow the economy.
According to the IMF report, the US Treasury market’s liquidity has declined to levels not seen since the pandemic’s lowest point in March 2020.
According to Gourinchas, it would be a massive blow to the US economy, the world economy, and the US Treasury market, which is one of the global financial systems.
There might be at least a few who wonder who Pierre-Olivier Gorinchas is and why is his name seen all over the news regarding the IMF and the global economy.
Do you want to know more about Gourinchas? Here’s everything that you want to know about the top economist at the IMF.
Who Is Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas?
The French economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is the S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Management at the University of California, Berkeley. He also serves as the director of the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and is connected to the Haas School of Business.
Macroeconomics, particularly global macroeconomics and global finance, is the subject of his research. He succeeded Gita Gopinath as the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2022. He is a member of IMF’s Senior Leadership in his capacity as Chief Economist.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas – Education
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas attended the Ecole Polytechnique from 1987 to 1990, the Ecole des Ponts et Chaussees from 1990 to 1993, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1993 to 1996.
He earned his Ph.D. from here while working with Olivier Blanchard, Richard Caballero, and Rudiger Dornbusch on a thesis on exchange rates and consumption.
Pierre Olivier Gourinchas – The Economist
Gourinchas has a lengthy and complex academic career. He started working at UC Berkeley in 2003, and he is currently the SK and Angela Chan professor of Global Management and Faculty Director of the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy.
From 1988 to 2003, he served as an assistant professor of economics at Princeton University. Before that, he held the same position at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business.
Additionally, he is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Program Director for International Finance and Macroeconomics. He served as a representative on the French Prime Minister’s Council of Economic Advisors from 2012 to 2013.
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Gourinchas served as the Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review, the Fund’s top research publication, from 2009 to 2016. He was also an IMF visiting scholar.
He has served on the editorial boards of several top economic journals, such as the Journal of International Economics, and as a co-editor of the American Economic Review Journal.
He started working as the IMF’s Chief Economist in January 2022 on a part-time basis as he wrapped up some earlier teaching obligations, and then from April 2022 onwards he started working full-time.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas – Achievements
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas was awarded the Prize of the Best Young Economist of France in 2008. He also received the Prix du Meilleur Jeune in the same year.
In 2007, he won the Bernacer Prize for best European Economist under 40 working in macroeconomics and finance.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas – Net Worth
The information regarding the net worth of the french economist is mostly unknown. Even if Gourinchas got global attention, he kept the details regarding his personal life very private.
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